Trend vs statistical trend

Published On: April 4th, 2024|Categories: Blog|

The latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® issued a few days ago, was quite encouraging!

Highlighting that the manufacturing indexes broke a sixteen-month trend of contraction, moving into expansion numbers. They summarized with New Orders Growing; Backlogs Contracting; Production Growing; Employment Contracting; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers’ Inventories Too Low; Prices Increasing; Exports and Imports Growing.

But then I saw another business website that led their opening paragraph summarizing mfg activity trends. In general, new orders, backlogs, production, and exports are all growing (moved into expansion). Yet, the report indicated supplier deliveries slowing, and imports contracting.

Still all-in-all good news but there are some metrics to take serious note of.

Employment is still in contraction, meaning labor access will still be strained. Customer inventories are not just low, they are exceptionally low. Meaning they have held off ordering until they were maybe forced to. Maybe too long as it appears supplier deliveries are questionable and imports of raw materials may be a problem.

The important thing to take from all this is the difference between a trend and a statistical trend. The definition of trend is a general direction in which something is developing or changing. The definition of a statistical trend is a pattern found in time series datasets; it is used to describe if the data is showing an upward or downward movement for part or all of the time series. The operative words there being pattern and time series datasets.

PlastiCert’s management buy out (MBO) occurred right after and a result of the recession of 2008. We addressed our issues and managed through that serious downturn, not just returning to profitability, but eliminating all our debt. We also reacted to and pushed through the COVID epidemic stronger and more capable than before it.

While we recognize the significance of this latest ISM report, we will continue to manage PlastiCert through thoughtful assessment and nimble reaction to the data and information we can pull together.

I bring this to your attention to reassure our customers and desired customers that PlastiCert will be here for the long haul. We weathered the recession, we weathered COVID and we weathered the last 16 months of contraction.

Need a SOLID performing and reliable injection molder that will NOT be one of the suppliers on your “watch over” radar screen? Then give us a call. As I have said before, “Our Job is to make you look good doing your job!”


Share This Post